S&P Futures Week of 30OCT12

30OCT12
Busy weekend, didn't get a chance to chart.  Still been busy, mainly been using ES_F as a baramoter for market health, mid-term.  Below is the daily, same prjections and levels from last week, updated candles.  Look at my previous posts, no change on the commentary with the current candles.  The last green candle came close to the 1.618 level.  May try for it again.  If the bottom of the kumo holds ~the recent lows then I'd say give it a week and we start ticking back up.  Break that and its into the 1370s for the next support (looking at the Chikou Span).

Follow the rules: Cut losses quickly; Don't overtrade; Take profits/sell into strength; Don't chase, watch for the pullback; Have a plan and stick to it

View my other posts/give me some advice at http://part-timepennystocktrader.blogspot.com/. Follow me on twitter @BNGESG.

S&P Futures Week of 21OCT12

24OCT12
Updated candles on daily.  As I mentioned on Sunday, if the .886 level didn't hold then 1.27 will be tested.  Right now the 1.27 is on its second day of getting tested.  Deferring to the ichimoku study, since the top of the cloud was breached, the bottom will probably get hit...which is also the 1.618 fib level.  I think the bounce happens there, ~1390 area.

I posted the following chart last week or the week before last.  The highlighted boxes areas for support.  This week's candle hit the .886 fib before reversing.  A close above the .886 for the week and I'll feel more confident that the 1.618 daily level mentioned above holds for a reversal...breach .886 and 1.27 fib is up next.

21OCT12
Below is an updated daily.  The projection lines are the same as from last Sunday.  Added support levels (red).  Looks like we're at another donut test (.886 fib).  Last week it tested the donut on the way up and was rejected.  This session's close needs to close above ~1421.50 (.886).  Breach the donut and 1405 (1.27 fib) will be the next test.

Follow the rules: Cut losses quickly; Don't overtrade; Take profits/sell into strength; Don't chase, watch for the pullback; Have a plan and stick to it

View my other posts/give me some advice at http://part-timepennystocktrader.blogspot.com/. Follow me on twitter @BNGESG.

S&P Futures Week of 14OCT12

14OCT12
Below is the weekly/monthly look.  On the weekly its bearish in the short term, bullish in the mid and long.  I have a couple highlighted boxes as "zones" where there is support and possible reversals.  1st one between 22 and 02 are the .618 fib down to the .886 fib (donut test).  Breach the 02 area and the next area starts at the 1.27 fib to the 1.618 area 74-49.  Keep in mind that on the monthly we're just at .236 fib retrace, a .5 pull is 1365.

Below is an updated daily.  Projection from last week seems to be playing out though slower than I was thinking.  Friday close was at the .886 fib arc, so we're testing the donut.  This upcoming session will probably give us an idea if the donut rejects and we start bouncing or if there's more pull.  More pull then 1.27 fib is the next support test ~1405, breach there and 1.618 is up next ~1387.

Below is short term (30min).  Donut test coming up.

Follow the rules: Cut losses quickly; Don't overtrade; Take profits/sell into strength; Don't chase, watch for the pullback; Have a plan and stick to it

View my other posts/give me some advice at http://part-timepennystocktrader.blogspot.com/. Follow me on twitter @BNGESG.

S&P Futures Week of 7OCT12

9OCT12 (RTH close)
Updated daily below.  Added fib arcs from recent high.  Looks like donut rejected price action up.  When looking at price level 1 ~1405.25 that would be the next donut test, breach and 1.27 fib arc lines up with the price level 2 ~1387.50.  1st conservative bear target from Sunday night's post (below) hit 45.  Closed under that support, thoughts are 2nd target ~1430 (31.25 if you're looking for exact numbers) will be tested.

8OCT12
Chart below is in reference to my last tweet.  Idea is that the 30 min cloud has been breached and so the topside should get a hit ~1456.5).  When applying the fib arcs, it looks like the price action was at the first short term reversal area for this current leg up (1.27 arc).  If it clears then the next area for a reversal down would be the 1.618 arc.  Areas of support for a leg down are: 53.5 (100% expansion), 52.25 (78.6% expansion and area where the tenkan line is rising to meet price action), and 50.5 (50% expansion, area where the kijun may meet price action, and cloud bottom).

Below is an updated daily.  As referenced in last night's post, the donut (.886 arc) rejection seems to be playing out, though this current session's candle is point up, there's still several more hours before it closes.

7OCT12
Below is the daily chart.  Fri close was a test of the donut (.886) which suggests a rejection.  Breach the arc and the 1.27 ~1480 will probably be the next resistance test.  My bias is for a little more of a pullback, using the Chikou Span as a guide for support levels.  When translating the CS support areas to fib levels the 1405 area is .886 fib and the 1387 area is the 1.13 fib.  Conservative bear would be to say that 1445 gets tested this week, 1430 the next support test once 45 gets taken out.

Below is the 30 minute with expansion levels on ichimoku.  Thoughts are a gap or move up at the open before the start of a pull.  The move up might be slight, just 1 point before it pulls back into the cloud.  Still iffy on this tool merger.  Don't know enough about the expansion levels to understand direction on it.

Follow the rules: Cut losses quickly; Don't overtrade; Take profits/sell into strength; Don't chase, watch for the pullback; Have a plan and stick to it

View my other posts/give me some advice at http://part-timepennystocktrader.blogspot.com/. Follow me on twitter @BNGESG.

S&P Futures Week of 30SEP12

2OCT12
Sent the following out on twitter a little while ago:

Below is the chart I'm looking at.  Still trying to figure out how to use these two charting tools.  Right now I'm having a hard time seeing the tree in the forest with all those lines.  Work in progress.

Below is the 15min chart.  Just another example of cloud breaching (one side hit means the other side will get tagged).

30SEP12
A few hours into the evening session. Below is just updated candles on the "new" fusion chart.  The 100% yellow expansion held support earlier.  Currently testing the 50% which will be the bottom of the cloud if it stays there for the next candle...move higher this hour and it could sneak through to the upside of the cloud to the 25% ~1437.25.  I highlighted some points of interest on the chikou span path (trailing red to the left) with some ovals-areas of resistance if it keeps moving up (correlated with the expansion levels).   Remember last nights tip: a breach into the cloud usually means a hit of the other side.

29SEP12
I'm incorporating an idea from @GreenJayTrading, specifically his 25% expansion levels.  They've been good magnets or pauses for price action though I'm still learning/trying to figure out a lot of how he uses these things, especially in the long term.  My explanation and use of his levels may be loose interpretations so if you want to learn more about them give him a follow on twitter: @GreenJayTrading.

The levels he uses help with trading by providing best risk versus reward entries and targets.  The charts below are with ichimoku studies since, when trying to identify levels, ichimoku has worked best for me.  My thoughts are when these levels line up (his and mine) then there's a good chance that they'll get hit or provide resistance (trying the idea of confluence here folks).  Below is the 30 min chart.  Red lines are based off of overnight low and high, while the yellow is the same thing for regular trading hours.  The levels are boundaries for the following session--red are based on overnight action for the comng RTH while the yellow are based on RTH action for the coming overnight session.

Below are the same levels, just in the hourly chart.  Wanted to note how price action followed the kumo (cloud) pretty well last session.  Even when you look at Friday's low, it stopped at an ichimoku area of support-the chikou span (trailing red) bounced off support (its further to the left of the chart, didn't capture it on my screen shot).

I went back and ran the expansions and they are on point.  I'm adding the ichimoku to help determine if a level is going to hold or give to the next.  For example, on the hourly chart above: when the price action broke the 75% red level at around 0400 CST Friday question is if 50% will hold.  One hint is that when a cloud is breached, a good chance that the other side of the cloud (in this case bottom) will get tagged (look at the breaches in the 30min).  There are other things to look for in the ichimoku study, but I think you get the idea.

Below is wkly/mon for reference.  Still bullish.  Weekly suggesting a hit in the low 1400s coming (~1408), but even there it'll still be bullish.  A close under that blue line then things start looking different.

Follow the rules: Cut losses quickly; Don't overtrade; Take profits/sell into strength; Don't chase, watch for the pullback; Have a plan and stick to it

View my other posts/give me some advice at http://part-timepennystocktrader.blogspot.com/. Follow me on twitter @BNGESG.